Just a Week to Go

Deciding my Party Vote 2026 would have to be the most difficult choice I’ve had to make over the last few elections. This is a slightly edited email I wrote to my kids:

Hi all,

Some of you have asked who I am voting for this election. With regards to the Party Vote, quite frankly, I have been conflicted and undecided.

I have read a great deal, have my usual very strong opinions, and have no problem with being out of step with the majority. I lean unashamedly towards the right, conservative side of the spectrum, both socially and economically. A Labour-led coalition would be disastrous for NZ on both counts. Tax and spend, and give away “free” stuff.

https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/bribe_o_meter

Voting is never about picking the winner, and there is no such thing as a wasted vote. I have always voted for the person or the party who most reflects my own values. This has sometimes meant voting for a party who I don’t expect to get into Parliament. Sometimes it comes down to choosing the lesser of the evils on offer. It’s not that I’m a swinging voter, but my vote has always been looking for a home.

https://vote.nz/2026-general-election/voting-in-the-election/party-lists

I won’t be voting for National. They didn’t follow through on key promises of reducing the bureaucracy and they were anti ACT’s Treaty Principles Bill, which would have helped define the Treaty, rather than destroy it, as advocated by other parties. Luxon said there was nothing (nothing!!) in the Bill that he liked. National tends to sit on the fence, trying to keep everyone happy, and in the process gives away too much to those who won’t compromise. They need both ACT and NZ First to keep them from straying further to the left. (The centre is now well left of where it used to be).

That leaves me the following:

NZ First: In the past, I have absolutely rejected Winston Peters, Shane Jones, Ron Mark etc. I’ve had to change my opinion about Winston, given his conduct in the last election, the coalition negotiations, and his role in Foreign Affairs. He still spouts off (unsurprisingly more so since we’ve hit election season) but in the last three years, he has been much more restrained. A Nationalist, he’ll happily tell you what you want to hear. A populist party, which has been quite strategic in selecting their list. Alfred Ngaro, whom I greatly respect, is in at number five, and almost certain to be returned to Parliament.

Conservative Party NZ: Have been around a long while. Have reformed since Colin Craig blew up, and have been consistent in their messaging. No chance of getting into Parliament, but generally align with my own values.

ACT: Libertarian, free-market, socially liberal. David Seymour is a smart thinker. 

Vision NZ: Led by Hannah Tamaki. Brian Tamaki has been less vocal this time round. I support a lot of what they do in the community, but their rhetoric lets them down, much like Trump. 

NZ Loyal: Formed by Liz Gunn after Covid (2023), disbanded, resurrected. Was more of a protest group. Not a serious contender.

One source of information I trust is Bob McCoskrie from Family First. 

https://www.valueyourvote.nz

He’s put out a well-researched list of policies and voting record of our current MPs and the Parties. Highlighted green if they align with his “Family First Values”, black if they do not. Whether or not you agree with his evaluation, he’s provided the policy and voting information for you to consider.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/64af5bfd8ffbfb0e2a72f89f/t/6ab88be81cff6c5dd60638b8/1790479336513/Value-Your-Vote-2026-Download.pdf

Especially for the tables from page 8, party leaders

And from page 16, how your current electorate MP voted.

Quick summaries:

https://www.valueyourvote.nz/party-leaders/act-party

https://www.valueyourvote.nz/party-leaders/nz-first-party

There is also a lot of policy information here:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/politics_election-2026/feature/rnz-election-policy-guide-2026

This election is truly unique in that both left and right are working within the system to create overhang seats, a legitimate ploy. If the polls and the pundits are to believed, it’s possible that we may have an overhang on both sides of the House. 

There is also another possibility that I haven’t seen considered by commentators and poll interpreters, and that is that the polling on the party vote could also be reflected in the electorate vote. 

It’s the overhang strategy that presents me with a conflict. Do I support Conservatives, because they most closely align with my values, or NZ First, because they are already in Parliament, have mostly been a team-player in the Coalition, and because we need them to keep National honest? (And hope that ACT also have an influence.)

So here’s my decision: my party vote will go to NZ First - And if they do end up supporting a coalition on the left, one can only hope that their voting record would be consistent, at least on the social issues.

Feel free to disagree and ask questions 😉

And lastly, just to keep it fun, some predictions: 

• More than a few National and Labour electorate MPs will have their margin reduced drastically, if they are not dumped altogether.
• Much of National’s party vote will go to NZ First and ACT. 
• The Left’s party vote will match the polls.
• Maori Party will get their overhang
• Opportunities will not get in. Their vote will instead go to Labour and the Greens. 
• The balance of Parliament will stay roughly the same, though I fear that Labour-led might just scrape through
• NZ First will not side with Labour (if they do, they’ll be out in 2029)

Haha, election night will tell if am correct 😀

Quips & Quotes

Anonymous: Don't promise when you're happy, don't reply when you're angry, and don't decide when you're sad.

Go on, I dare you...

What is it about this crazy, introverted, risk-averse society in which we live, that we've been sucked into the philosophy of protecting ourselves against any risk that "might" happen?

Where has the courage gone? Why are we so afraid? What's happened to all the fun? What are we turning into?

Our nation was founded on the actions of risk-takers, men and women who wouldn't say die. They made decisions, they ignored the doomsayers and they succeeded against all odds. And we're all so proud of Sir Edmund Hillary for conquering Mt Everest, unlike so many who'd previously died in the attempt.

The world would be a sadder place if we didn't have our heroes - those who accomplish, and those who put themselves into danger to save another person's life - and yet we discourage our kids from getting hurt... in the playground... Um, where else can kids learn bravery?

In their heart of hearts, people were designed for risk and thrill - why else would they frequent the theme parks and roller coasters and the high ropes in Taupo? How else can you explain a 47 year-old going down a flying fox upside down? (Oh yeah, there were girls present...)

And sure, OSH has its place, and work-places should be safe, but do we really need a company notice to use the hand-rail on the stairs? I know, they put it up because someone slipped and got hurt. But shouldn't they be just as concerned that, in reading the notice, we might become distracted and miss our footing? Maybe they should put up another company notice:

PLEASE READ ALL NOTICES BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO USE THE STAIRS!

Where's the case for personal responsibility? And in a wider sense, while we're so busy protecting ourselves from "potential" risk, aren't we also missing opportunities and "potential" benefits?

There will always be decisions to make, forks in the road. There will always be consequences. My advice to my kids as they chose their study options for university was pretty simple:

• study something you're going to love doing; and
• will make you money; and
• will facilitate your having kids; and
• you can use to advance a cause greater than your own

And yes, as a youth I also struggled with the concept of knowing the perfect or permissible Will of God, but hasn't He always given us a choice? (And that's a good thing because I'm far too strong-minded to be a robot...)

So here's a thought: Faith is a belief in a certain outcome, but so is fear. It's up to me which one I choose to meditate on, which road I choose to go down. And though I can't control the future, I can influence it...

And when I get a few years down the road and circumstances turn to custard, it's my choice whether or not I compare this road's custard to what "might" have happened had I chosen the other road. Frankly, I can't afford to live with blame and regret.

We must take risks! I have...

No, I'm not talking about the time I was out on my motorbike looking for a bump to jump, and came across a railway crossing, didn't really see the Stop sign, and landed on the main road out of town, with cars coming at me from both sides...

And nor am I promoting the type of risk when I leapt into the Manawatu River from just below the height of the road. (Given the pain it caused in some parts of my anatomy, I'm pleased to say I survived to father four kids.) It's interesting to note my older brother didn't try to stop me. Maybe he just figgered it was something I had to do...

There was a time when I gave up a job and worked as a volunteer for a year to help support and restore a church who were going through difficulties. I was young and exciting, and in theory it cost me a great deal. But the long-term benefits were endless.

In contrast, I later quit a job to pursue a get-rich-quick "opportunity" and I wasn't smart enough to ask for advice. Little surprise that after three months I had no job and little money. It was of course, very good for my prayer life.

On both occasions I held tight to this one line out of one of David's songs:

"The steps of a good man are directed by the Lord, and He takes great pleasure in watching over him... and no matter how far he might fall, the Lord will never knock him over and keep him down. No Sir, He'll hold him up, he'll help him up and he'll get him going again..."

In my experience, although it took time, that's exactly what happened!

Need another example? My wife and I both took a risk when we got married, though admittedly that was a "managed" risk, as we both agreed from the start that the d-word would never be in our vocabulary. Mate, was any risk ever so worth it!

So when making decisions and considering risk, of course we have to ask ourselves, "What will it cost me if I do?" But here's the bigger question: "What might it cost me if I don't?"